KZN Provincial Treasury - SUMMARY OF FINDINGS FOR KZN â€
KZN Provincial Treasury - SUMMARY OF FINDINGS FOR KZN â€" 2nd QUARTER 2014:Population of working age



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KZN Provincial Treasury - SUMMARY OF FINDINGS FOR KZN â€" 2nd QUARTER 2014

2014-09-04

The release of the 2nd quarter 2014 national GDP results and statistics by  Statistics SA (July 2014) enables us to determine the national economic growth rate for the 2nd quarter of 2014. It further allows us to calculate and derive the gross regional product for KwaZulu-Natal for the 2nd quarter of 2014 and the various provincial sectors’ economic growth rates. It must be noted that the national GDP-related calculations and values are based on published data, i.e., actual data. However, the quarterly gross regional product for KwaZulu-Natal and related calculations and values are based on a structural model developed by the author (working paper 14 December 2008) and thus are estimates only.

Click below link to view National GDP and Economic Growth Rate:
Provincial GDP 200714.2.pdf - 0.9 Mb

Provincial Leads and Lags

The analysis indicates that the average time delay between building plans approved and building plans completed (all categories) based on the correlation coefficient method is 12 months on a national level and 17 months provincial level and based on the RMSE method is12months on a national level and18 months provincial level.  This suggested that on average the time delay between national and provincial is 2 to 5 months i.e., it takes between 2 to 6 months longer for a building plan to be completed on a provincial level compared to the time it takes on a national level.

Click below link to view 
KZN LEADS AND LAGS ANALYSIS for 2nd Quarter:
Provincial Leads and Lags 3.10.pdf - 0.6 Mb

Provincial Risk

The economic risk/condition variables that are included in the monitor are indicated in the table below. The relative sector weights for the economic risk/condition variables are also displayed and add up to a 100%. The weights at this stage are purely assumed weights and not based on any econometric modelling or calculations simply because of a lack of sufficient time series data. However, it must be mentioned that various weightings have been modelled with very little impact on the overall results.

Click on the below link to view KZN RISK AND CONDITIONS MONITOR for 2nd Quarter:
Provincial Risk 2.11.pdf - 0.5 Mb

LABOUR MARKET DEFINITIONS

Click below link to view anaylsis for provincial labour:
Provincial Labour Market 4.10.pdf - 0.2 Mb



Dr Clive Coetzee

General Manager:  Infrastructure Management and Economic Services

KZN Provincial Treasury

Economist (PhD UKZN)

033 897 4538

http://www.kzntreasury.gov.za/





KZN Provincial Treasury - SUMMARY OF FINDINGS FOR KZN â€" 2nd QUARTER 2014

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