Prospects bleak but hopeful
2013-11-18
With due gravitas we examine world prospects and pronounce these bleak. SA prospects are described as even bleaker.
That’s sad, for things are a lot more hopeful than this bleak reading would suggest. But don’t ever get between a man and his depression. For so much hopelessness would invite yet more bleakness.
Be that as it may.
After a bit of dip, inadequately explained, the world is leaving a mini-ice age and is reviving again mildly.
The key to everything appears to have been business confidence and risk-taking or the relative lack of it as sparks of caution overtook all else.
In the US the ongoing revival is a matter of inner resilience shining through (market capitalism really being a remarkable engine once confidence has been stabilized, with deleveraged consumers, banks and housing making a comeback and fracking a powerful energy revolution) while the fiscal cutbacks are losing their depressive power.
In Europe fiscal consolidation in most countries has been nearly completed, there has been some structural reform and exports are doing well in places.
Japan has provided a lot of monetary and fiscal stimulus with talk of structural reform, which as in Europe may not be as much as desired but also not as minimalist as claimed by many observers.
China has arrested its slowing with renewed stimulus, while the real focus is on what structural reform the political conclave this month has delivered which will impact meaningfully over the coming decade.
There the first impressions were cautious, but further enlightenment last Friday caused a strong global stir. Decisive role for markets in pricing fuel, electricity, rail, communication. Changes to social and land policies addressing inequality and grievances.
In the Middle East, Iran appears to be seeking some kind of reapproacment with the world, with possible implications for energy prices, further reinforced by technical issues such as fracking.
And so around the world, repeated many times over in small settings and big, often disappointingly tiny and yet every bit helps.