KZN Provincial Treasury - Business Stats

2014-05-05

KwaZulu-Natal economy seems to have had a good February compared to last year, but compared to the previous month the province’s economy struggled due to the effects of extended labour unrest and the unexpected interest rate increase late January. The latest KwaZulu-Natal barometer, as compiled by Mike Schssler of Economists.co.za, gained 3.8% year-on-year, but declined by 2.4% month-on-month, the first decline in seven months. The year-on-year improvement in the barometer, not only for KwaZulu-Natal, but for the whole of South Africa, was not surprising given that 2013 started with the after-effects of the August 2012 events at Marikana. Because of the low base this created, the month-on-month comparison provides a better reflection of what recently happened in the KwaZulu-Natal economy.

Another noteworthy aspect of the KwaZulu-Natal barometer’s increase was the fact that the interest rate increase at the end of January does not seems to have had an immediate effect on the barometer’s year-on-year performance. The effect of an interest rate increase usually shows up quite quickly in the barometer, but in this case the rate hike of 50 basis points was possibly too small.

Click below link to download KZN Business Barometer Feb 2014:
KwaZulu-Natal Business Barometer Feb 2014.docx - 2.1 Mb


Fixed investment in KwaZulu-Natal is enjoying mixed fortunes as the weaker rand makes imports expensive, but export demand seems strong. The total investment index of the province’s fixed investment monitor, as compiled by Mike Schüssler of Economists.co.za, grew 2.1% year-on-year and 4.9% quarter-on-quarter. While the January growth numbers for the longer and the shorter term were the best in more than a year, a year-on-year growth figure of 2.1% is not great for KwaZulu-Natal. Fixed investment may be doing better than it has for the whole of 2013, but during 2011 and 2012 investment often grew in double digits. 2013 was a particularly bad year for fixed investment in KwaZulu-Natal and that makes the January growth number seem positive.

Transport index declines
One of the factors that held back investment growth in KwaZulu-Natal was the 11.9% year-on-year fall in the transport index. Quarter-on-quarter investment in transport equipment was down 4.6%, the first decline in seven months. The main reason behind the fall of investment in transport equipment was the continued fall in investment in air and sea transport equipment, which was down 46.7% from a year ago. This was the biggest decrease in 17 months and it is unlikely that the decline will get bigger than this. If it does, it will continue to pull down the whole investment index.

Investment in land transport equipment grew 6.4% and while the growth was good news, it slowed down compared to the previous two months, an indication that small businesses are still struggling and may be slowing down  their investment plans.

Click below link to download KZN Investment Monitor Jan 2014:
KwaZulu-Natal Investment Monitor Jan 14.docx - 1.6 Mb
 
Click below link to download Adcorp Report:
Adcorp Employment Index - 201404.pdf


Dr Clive Coetzee
General Manager:  Infrastructure Management and Economic Services
KZN Provincial Treasury
Economist (PhD UKZN)
033 897 4538
http://www.kzntreasury.gov.za