How does one respond to judicial intimidation and political innuendo? Our markets are rule-based, requiring trust in the most basic assumptions. When instead, one is offered ambiguity, active feinting, uncertainty tends to rise, to the point of spilling over into panic.

It has been interesting to see the instantaneous market reaction to suggestions finance minister Gordhan is under renewed siege from any number of quarters, some of them supposedly visible (the SARS wars), but others sensed in deep background (political motivations clearly not in line with the national interest).

At bottom, what is so frustrating is that few can get a handle just on what are the realities of a sitting minister surviving the displeasure of his president, for whatever reason. Things get only weirder when the politicians involved claim to have no beef with Gordhan (look Ma, no fingerprints) or like the deputy-president say to be actively rooting for him? What do they think they are doing?

Yet even so, the clashes of policy and political intentions appear deepening, it is not something that one thinks can be sustained, and the president sits rock-firm in his saddle.

How could a minister serving at the pleasure of such president survive, if the frustrations have gone far enough?

The legal advice to Gordhan has been to the point. You have been cooperative, they haven't a leg to stand on, resist them by ignoring them though agreeing to cooperate in any bona vide investigation. Ignore the innuendos. Carry on with your job.

Gordhan is doing just that, not for the first time. Instead, it is the rest of us and the watching market audience that is doing the active fretting rather than simply ignoring such intimidation. Not knowing quite the unwritten political rules, not knowing how this thing could suddenly reveal something truly evil, we fly blind.

That invites higher risk premiums. The sudden uncertainty of what to expect in terms of key policy areas (fiscal, parastatal governance, they concerted efforts to regain business confidence and get growth going again) cannot be wished away. It is too crucial to a few very major performance areas. And thus the panicky reactions.

But that doesn't mean that sold off markets necessarily give a better reflection of reality. SA is again being oversold, courtesy of stealth politics so refined that few seem to be able to price it. That could mean there are asset bargains which could be easily picked up, provided you fully understood the nature of the endgame.

Or in fact far worse is still to follow, serially, last year’s December’s Nenegate turning out to have been child’s play, indeed foreplay, given apparent relentless probing for access to the national purse.

Meanwhile we are left looking at the Rand back above 14:$, apparently straining on its leash, giving now few indications of wanting to come back yet more than already achieved so far this year, instead back in 2010-2015 mode, apparently seeking deeper oversold territory. That is, if the read the political tealeaves at all correctly. It leaves one wondering how far this strange irrational behaviour can still move goalposts.  And by how far this will still sink the Rand before we are many more months older.

It is three years to the 2019 national elections, and until then all power strings will be firmly in Zuma’s hands, to direct as he pleases, knowing full well he remains in charge of the larger part of the power structure through his deep patronage networks. Unless deeper resistance is stirring within inner councils, evidence of which finally broke surface spectacularly at Stofile’s Eastern Cape funeral this week, with yeasting consequences yet to come fully into focus. Will they?

These are very unsettling, bewildering thoughts to middle class South Africans who sense a deep exposure. Certainly in social media, there is a naked fear of what is still to coming. Mostly, people feel it is going to cost them, heavily, in perpetuity.

That what should be totally unacceptable, has become the new norm (worm?) in our midst. Something for our modernity still to fully internalise, digest, work out, reject, transform Some way to go.

Cees Bruggemans

Bruggemans & Associates, Consulting Economists 

Website www.bruggemans.co.za

Email  economics@bruggemans.co.za

Twitter  @ceesbruggemans