Economic cycle remains weak â€" the November BETI
BankservAfrica Economic Transaction Index (BETI) shows that the economy is still growing but at a very slow pace as mixed outcomes over different periods indicate that the economy is still probably marginally positive.

The numbers seen in the latest BETI â€" which has a close correlation to the GDP â€" indicate that the overall economy is being effected by:

- lower commodity prices
- lower tourist numbers
- labour action
- weak currency
- bearish financial markets

Overall the BETI data is weak and South Africa remains close to recessionary conditions.

The BETI grew 2% compared to a year ago, and 0.1% compound to a month ago. Quarterly the BETI remains in decline, which present a seemingly conflicted picture.  However, this is explained by the fact that the different periods of measurement simply reflect weak business conditions and a cyclical downswing.

There are no strong economic signals that indicate any turn around in the present economic cycle or business conditions, with indicators such as the PMI for manufacturing data showing further declines in November, but new cars sales indicating a small increase.

Slower inflows of funds based on the weaker commodity prices are impacting the export earnings of the South African economy.  However, this has been offset somewhat for consumers by 13 months of year-on-year declines in the retail petrol price, as well as lower inflation.

Click below link to download BETI Report for Dec 2015:
BETI Report Dec 2015.docx - 91 KB