There are a few obvious self-inflicted wounds and a few not so obvious ones coming into view. They all carry costs.

The Syrian civil war is deeply deplorable. When gas was used on civilians recently, resulting in thousands of painful casualties, it stirred the West, fuelled calls for regime retribution, with the resulting fear of possibly spreading conflict and oil supply disruptions triggering higher oil prices, Brent reaching $117.

What was supposedly intended as punishment for the Assad regime (and which has yet to materialize, having picked up a lot of flack along the way), immediately translated into a self-inflicted wound as global consumers and producers got saddled by higher oil costs.

With oil being over $10 higher than where it otherwise would have been, the tab for this little misadventure is so far running at $1bn per day.

That is far more than what a few tomahawks would cost.

Even more serious is the uncertainty being created by the Wars of the Bernanke Succession.

There are eminent candidate successors, but all have their detractors, and political Washington only too willing to have a bon-fight burning effigies.

But while so occupied, with five months to go to the Bernanke retirement from office and five other FOMC members leaving or retiring, a growing unease is seeping into markets. Who will succeed? What policy will come to be followed?

Looked at long enough, the certainty of recent Fed policy guidance tends to go up in smoke. This feeds the tendency towards higher US bond yields, creates more headwind on the nose for the US economy, causes slower growth and fewer new jobs created.

Such uncertainty also can feed into greater trading volatility, with less appetite for risky EM assets.

The uncertainty surrounding the Fed chairman succession gets further complicated by the next US debt ceiling battle, now scheduled for mid-October. Implacableness rules on all sides on this issue, and another bruising encounter may lie ahead. This is likely to further unsettle markets.

At home, the strike season is steadily advancing. After the motor, clothing and construction people downed work last week, it is now the turn of the gold miners and the fuel retail trade, even if this week supposedly will only see NUM strike (and plausibly end up testing its mettle in terms of active followers remaining) while the fuel retail strike has apparently been shelved for now.

Nearly each one of these sectors is strategic for exports, infrastructure roll-out or keeping the economy going.

The damage so done leaves an imprint in income lost, confidence damaged, reputation tarnished.

These are costly sacrifices incurred in the name of ideals and ideology made by very few in the name of all.

Cees Bruggemans
Consulting Economist FNB
Cees@fnb.co.za

Twitter sound bites @ceesbruggemans